To Win Elections, Build Brand Loyalty

In 2022, Oregon Republicans saw the stars aligning to break the 10-election governor’s race losing streak. History shows that Oregon Republicans compete successfully in elections with a freshman Democratic president in his first midterm and full Democratic control of federal and Oregon State government. The last instances occurred in 1994 and 2010 — but even then, the Republican gubernatorial candidate fell short.

2022 became even more attractive with a combination of an open governor’s seat and former Democrat State Sen. Betsy Johnson entering the race as an independent — possibly siphoning off Democrat votes from an unwavering leftist like former Oregon House Speaker Tina Kotek.

The fervor for a potential Republican win stoked a record-breaking 19 candidates to enter the Republican gubernatorial primary. Establishment-backed former House Republican Leader Christine Drazan won, and then carried the Republican flag into November.

Everything appeared to be breaking Drazan’s way. She had money, momentum and national support. Then her lead evaporated the week before the election.

Kotek’s camp appeared shaken in October, but they knew that their ace in the hole was — and always will be — highly motivated and organized people who vote. The turnout “machine” isn’t a machine at all. It’s issue groups that cash in on their trusted relationships. They ask their supporters for two things: to vote, and to vote for their candidate.

These professional, issue-driven groups own the Democrats’ stranglehold on Oregon statewide elections because they communicate with, motivate, organize and finally sell those people any candidate they want. It’s a third-party stamp of approval that’s not just a friendly group name. It’s permission to vote for a candidate from a trusted source.

Oregon Democrats have shown that no matter how flawed the gubernatorial candidate, enough of their loyalists will walk through fire with the groups who share their values. And it’s worked perfectly in the governor’s race for the last 40 years — regardless of candidate, message or year.

Whether it’s abortion access, union strength, gun restrictions, environmental and climate activism, LGBTQ rights, or ethnicity-based advocacy, the issue groups on the left shepherd and create trust among their followers. It’s a customer base that the issue groups on the left cultivate every day, acting as wholly owned subsidiaries of the Democratic Party.

The left treats elections like a business. It is their only business.

On the other side of the coin, conservative and business leaders suffer from the chronic delusion that they can compete against the left for Oregon’s biggest prize every four years by paying for some campaign ads and asking voters to trust their mild-mannered candidate. That hasn’t and won’t cut it.

Conservatives have notched notable wins in smaller jurisdictions where candidates or their supporters have strong community relationships to compete with the trusted groups on the left.

Ironically, conservative and business leaders hire literally hundreds of Oregon lobbyists and — despite long odds — have a modicum of success inside the Oregon Capitol. Most lobbyists have trusted relationships with lawmakers and trade on those relationships to support their clients. That full-time, trust-driven strategy works in the halls of Salem.

These same business and conservative leaders could replicate their own relative success and begin building a professional, people-focused infrastructure to finally compete in elections.

Let’s compare one leftist issue group with all of Oregon’s business and conservative advocacy groups:

The Oregon League of Conservation Voters, a major environmental activist group, employs nine (non-lobbyist) staff dedicated to cultivating and organizing trusted relationships with fellow environmental activists. Among the dozens of large Oregon’s conservative and business groups, there is a solitary staffer, at Oregon Right to Life, whose sole focus is to succeed in elections.

You can’t build brand loyalty, or even interest, without cultivating relationships with potential customers. Job creators should know this better than anyone.

The problems that Governor-elect Kotek inherited will only grow worse on her watch. Oregonians of all political stripes are hungry for a fix to our biggest problems.

Unrest will continue among parents of public school kids; residents in wildfire-prone rural areas; residents and small business owners in urban areas overrun by homelessness, crime and violence; suburban commuters against tolls; and families impacted by drug addiction and mental health crises. Organizing, motivating and supporting Oregonians like these could be a start.

Oregon’s conservative and business leaders have an opportunity to finally evolve and begin to compete against the left. But it’s going to take a people-focused vision no matter the candidate, message or year.